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May 18th NBA news ... Bet On Now at bet-on-basketball-now.com

NBA: Los Angeles in command and favored
2010-06-05

Have you noticed how calm the Lakers have been this postseason? Yes, they have lost four road games and been 2-2 in two different series, plus gave away a few leads th at caused spread losses for backers, but not once have Kobe Bryant and the rest of his teammates looked truly flustered and exasperated to the point where they appeared beatable in a series. Up 1-0 in the NBA Finals series with Boston, Los Angeles goes into Game 2 on Sunday night as a 6-point favorite according to Sportsbook.com.

Game 1 was perfect example of Los Angeles' confident demeanor, as they were methodical in beating Boston. The Lakers were up by five after the first quarter, led by nine and the half and salted the contest away with 34-23 third stanza, building insurmountable 84-64 lead.

Phil Jackson’s club is 9-2 ATS after a playoff win this spring and are under control. After the Lakers ended the series against Phoenix in Game 6, the talk in the desert was the Suns lack of defensive intensity, as the Lake Show has 91 points after three quarters. Who would have ever guessed the defensive-minded Celtics would have permitted 84 points with 12 minutes still left to play?

It was shocking how little resistance Boston put up. Early today if you Googled the term “non-factor”, pictures of Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett all appeared. Paul Pierce was the only Celtics player showing any game close to what Celtics would expect, but that was mostly in the final quarter when the outcome was already determined, as they fell to 6-19 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this year.

To borrow a little Dick Vitale speak, the Lakers were ‘windex-men” cleaning the glass, outrebounding Boston by 42-31. With Pau Gasol having eight offensive rebounds, you would have thought he had grown a foot.

When Doc Rivers was asked about the last time he remembered his team being so outclassed on the boards, he responded this way. “I don’t know if I recall one,” he said. “But I know if there was, we lost that game, too. I can guarantee you that.”

You don’t rebound; you don’t win. What’s true during the regular season holds even truer now.

“They killed us on the glass,” he said.

What can Boston do to plot an upset in Game 2? Of course they have to rebound better, which might entail sending more players to the glass on the defensive side and once the ball is secured, immediately find Rondo and let him fire up the jets to beat L.A. down the floor. Rondo has to show better judgment with the ball in his hands.

The Celtics staff has to find ways to rub Pierce off Ron Artest’s “krazy glue” defense. Garnett can’t be dominated by Gasol, he has to work harder for rebounds and make medium range jump shots to pull the big man from Spain away from the bucket.

The Lakers offense is especially fluid at the Staples Center, which suggests Perkins has to be more a factor on the offense end besides setting screens. Though his scoring skills are limited, Perkins has to defeat Andrew Bynum in the post and be fed the ball for dunks or layups. Rivers and his coaches usually make solid adjustments and are 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

Sportsbook.com has L.A. as a six-point fave with total of 190 and they are 8-3 ATS after breaking the century mark. With two days between contests the Lakers are 12-4 UNDER this season. The Celtics will have to be much more assertive and are 22-10 ATS away from home after consecutive games with 19 or less assists. The last five times Boston has allowed 100 or more points, the next contest goes UNDER the number.

This matchup has an earlier start time of 8:00 Eastern on ABC and this is an absolute must win for the team in green, as it appears very unlikely they would sweep three at home.

StatFox Power Line – Lakers by 2



T-Wolves are brutal; the system they fall into is not
2010-03-10

It’s another play out the season campaign for Minnesota, with a well deserved 14-50 record , ranking 23rd in field goal percentage at 44.9 percent and 25th in field goal percentage defense at 47.5. About the only good news, if someone wants to call it that, is the Timberwolves are 32-32 against the spread, however losing by 9.8 points per game suggests more disinterested opponents not covering the spread than Minnesota bringing something positive to the party. On Wednesday, the Wolves play host to the Nuggets and the game is accompanied by an incredible FoxSheets system on the total. Sportsbook.com has this number set at 216.

The basketball gods toyed with the T-Wolves, allowing them to win and cover four games in a row from Jan. 29 – Feb. 6, giving them a false sense of turning their season around. That ended up being similar to a 70 degree day in Minneapolis in February, nice, but reality will soon be coming back to normal.

Minnesota has gone on to lose 12 of next 13 contests, including the last six in a row. In this deplorable stretch, the Timberwolves have surrendered 115.9 point per game, a full 9.2 points above their 29th ranked scoring defense that has allowed 106.7 PPG on the entire season. The high water mark or lowest point if you will was last contest against Dallas, where they conceded 125 points in losing by 13, making it their fourth consecutive Over game.

Tonight’s opponent Denver is No. 1 in the Northwest Division, third in the Western Conference and second in the NBA in scoring at 107.6 points per game.
Sportsbook.com has announced the Nuggets as eight-point favorite, with a total of 216. Throw all of this information into the “Big Brain Machine” and this is what you get.
Play the Over when the total is greater than or equal to 200, the home team is off a home loss by 10 points or more, with a winning percentage under 25 percent, playing a team with a winning record.

Sports betting losers are always thinking sports is fixed (have you ever heard somebody that wins at sporting betting say the games are fixed, oh that’s right, they are in on it) and wish they could be on part of the action. While intelligent sports bettors knows there is no such thing as a “lock”, they have a complete understanding of finding information that puts the chances of winning on their side.
For example, the last five NBA seasons have seen this specific totals system produce a 21-1 record, that 95.4 percent if you are keeping score at home. The average total score of this particular system is 220.5 points per game (well above tonight’s matchup), dating back to 1996.

If you want to look at one NBA game today, be sure to break this one down.


NBA: Can Denver Nuggets really pull the upset? (9:05 PM ET , ESPN)
2009-05-19

Hard to fathom coach George Karl put in more then 10 minutes since last Thursday in preparation for Houston for Game 1 on the Western Conference Finals. Karl’s club will be well rested with six days between games and anxious to show the basketball world they belong. He’s also wise enough to know, no matter how bad the Los Angeles Lakers appeared at times in last series, the Rockets were not able to defeat the Lake Show four times, which is Denver’s mission. Despite a history of road team success in the conference final round, nearly 60% of bettors are backing the host Lakers tonight at Sportsbook.com.

One of the most difficult aspects of handicapping a series is forgetting about the entire regular season. The Lakers won 65 games during the regular season; Denver tied a franchise best with 54 W’s. Los Angeles had the look of a champion, more than doubling the Nuggets average scoring margin per game (7.7 vs 3.4), showing their superiority.
It’s very easy to look at the Lakers against these upstarts and asked the question of Denver – What have you done?

This is where the lines start to blur, causing consternation. The Nuggets have won 22 of last 27 games and to prove how impressive this number is, they have covered the spread 20 times, including all 10 playoff games. Consider oddsmakers really can’t put up numbers to draw bettors to bet bad numbers with so few of games, thus have to list a fair number to attract action on both sides. To think Denver has bested the line maker 10 straight times, that is awfully impressive.
Denver’s strength’s revolve around Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. Each can be dynamic scorer and Billups makes ‘Melo better, especially at this time of year with ability to distribute. Billups brought defensive toughness over from the Motor City, giving the Nuggets defenders help in the front and back courts.

Denver has a swat team in the frontcourt, with Nene and Kenyon Martin and “The Birdman” Chris Anderson. The Nuggets are far from a top notch defensive team like Cleveland, but with these players contesting every shot within 12 feet of the basket, nothing comes easy. To show the change in mindset, Denver is 8-0 ATS after three straight games when both teams scored 100 points or fewer this season.

The Lakers are not to be dismissed; it’s just not as clear where they stand. The only constant is inconsistent effort. Phil Jackson used a wise move before Game 7 to take the pressure off his team for contradictory performances, by saying he wasn’t sure what Houston team would show up for the series finale, since it was the Rockets who were up and down to the Zen Master’s way of thinking.

It’s easy to forget Boston played two Game 7’s the first two rounds last season, before finding the right rhythm and becoming NBA champions. Los Angeles plays very disjointed right now. Losing Games 4 and 6 so badly to Houston, only underscored their vulnerability against a team who wanted it more than they did. Ask any NBA expert or sharp sports better right today who is the better team and you’ll get either a blank stare or the eyes will move to upper right, as they contemplate answer before speaking.

One perception of Los Angeles appears as true today as last year. How Andrew Bynum goes, so likely to will the Lakers. In games where he is involved mentally and physically from the start, the Lakers play better and have more physical presence. In other contests where he is lazy defensively and draws quick fouls, he retreats like a turtle into his shell and is non-factor. Bynum’s importance is proven in numbers other than wins and losses.

The Lakers margin of victory during the regular season was 1.8 points per game more with Bynum in the line-up. While that figure doesn’t sound like much, it’s a 26.4 percent difference. An easier to comprehend method is to look at Bynum’s play in the last four games against Houston. In the wins (both at Staples Center), he had 28 points, 14 rebounds and just four total fouls. In the losses, ZERO points, 9 boards and six early fouls that ended up in serious bench time.

The Lakers won and covered three of four meetings this season and are opening at home, where they are 7-1 SU and ATS against Denver in L.A. The oddsmakers at Sportsbook.com have Los Angeles as -300 favorites to win the series and have them as 6.5-point favorites to win the opener, with total of 215. Kobe Bryant won’t have to face such individual defensive pressure like the last series and his team is 11-2 ATS in home games after three or more consecutive Unders. Expect the Lakers to want to open it up and they are 16-4 OVER in home games after a combined score of 165 points or less.

Denver has 100 percent extreme confidence coming into the series, plus will want to open up a can of “Want To” to express to people just how good they are. The Nuggets are at the top of their game at the moment and are 13-4 ATS versus good shooting teams making 46 percent or more of their shots since Game 42 this season.

Can Denver upset the Lakers the way they are playing, undoubtedly if L.A. continues to put forth the same effort. It isn’t a reach however to believe the Kobe and friends realize they are four wins away from repeat trip to The Finals and elevate their game to new heights. About all we can tell at the moment is Denver is ready and the Lakers are capable, the drama begins in ESPN at 9:05 Eastern.


NBA: San Antonio in negative betting system
2009-03-24

The normally reliable San Antonio Spurs suffered a home loss to Houston Sunday, being outscored down the stretch 10-2, which reduced their lead over the Rockets and New Orleans to just on game in the loss column in the Southwest Division. That gives the Spurs four losses in six games, jeopardizing their position in the Western Conference playoff picture. Tonight they’ll take on Golden State as a 10-point favorite, but a certain system says to go the other way. Read on.

San Antonio’s woes can be traced to injuries, causing a lack of offense. Manu Ginobili being out of the lineup is a serious void to fill in the scoring column and Tim Duncan balky knee doesn’t appear to getting any better. The Spurs have fallen to 12th in the West in points scored at 96.6 per game, after scoring just 85 versus Houston.

Tonight they will be matched against the Golden State Warriors, one of the worst road teams in the NBA. Golden State is 6-29 in traveling uniforms and league worst 12-22-1 ATS. The Warriors on the year have no issues scoring, averaging 108.6 points per game. It is the lack of defensive effort that dooms them most nights, surrendering 112.1 points per game. The offense doesn’t always make up for the defensive shortcomings, like when they scored 89 points in loss at New Orleans two days ago.

The Warriors have lost five in a row on the road and 16 of 18 (5-12-1 ATS) and enter the place of their own haunting. Golden State has lost 21 games in a row at San Antonio, last winning on Feb. 14, 1997. (Holy Shrimp!) That was the same year the original blog was invented and the Spurs have covered the spread 15 times against the Warriors.

Sportsbook.com has San Antonio as a 10-point favorite and this should be a slam dunk, right? Not if you are willing to consider all the possibilities. For example, a very potent system that reads this way:

Play Against favorites of 10 or more points, who are an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.

The logic behind this system is the ordinary offensive team will probably score points against a bad defensive club. The lousy defensive team will be focused more on offense and will look to deliver better results on the offensive end, making it a potentially more competitive contest. This system is 25-6 ATS, 80.6 percent since 1996, with the average differential 6.8 points per game.

It’s not easy to overlook all the success San Antonio has enjoyed at home against Golden State, however for those contrarian thinkers; this matchup might well hold value.


NBA: How Bad Becomes Good Betting in the NBA
2009-01-13

The NBA is littered with teams that make you wonder why and how they even have franchises. Some are so poorly run and mismanaged you would think they got the management leftovers from AIG or General Motors. While these teams march on in futility, every now and again the locals and fans of these teams see a spark, sort like your 401K going up three percent after watching it lose nearly half its worth. At least it provides hope, which is what any sports fan or sports bettor wants when saddled with a bad situation.

The Charlotte Bobcats (14-24, 21-17 ATS) are not in last place this season in the Southeast Division thanks Washington being even worse than they are. Longtime coach and player antagonist Larry Brown has been brought on board, not to win a NBA championship, rather to establish a work ethic among Charlotte players and get them on solid footing to make them a playoff contender, since they will be sick of Brown long before they could ever be among the elite in the Eastern Conference.

The Bobcats have made progress; being outscored by only three points per game on the year (91.4 to 94.4), led by point guard Raymond Felton, Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor. The trade that brought two starters in Raja Bell and Boris Diaw has also helped.

Charlotte plays in Detroit (22-13, 16-19 ATS) tonight and are seven-point underdogs at Sportsbook.com, with a total of 176. The Bobcats haven’t figured out this whole winning thing on the road, with four wins in 16 tries, however sports bettors are more than willing to give them props in this spot with 10-6 ATS record. Charlotte has won three of their last five and could possibly have an even better record if coach Brown could nag them into playing better defense, since they allow 47 percent of shots to go thru the basket as visitors.

The Bobcats bench will be a little thinner without guard D.J. Augustin, who is out about 10 days, yet can’t argue with the Carolina-based franchise being 9-3 ATS on the road against teams with winning home records and even better 12-3 ATS as a road dog of 5 to 10.5 points.

Heading due west, a Minnesota Timberwolves uprising is in the works, the likes of which have not been seen since when people actually thought out-going President George Bush was still doing a good job. Minnesota (11-25, 17-18-1 ATS) must have unwrapped something for Christmas they really liked, as they are 7-2 (7-1-1 ATS) since Dec. 26 and have won five in a row. The T-Wolves haven’t won six straight since a nine-game winning streak to close out the 2003-04 season.

Minnesota allows 101.6 points per game, yet during this winning streak, they have trimmed that number to 95.6 per game. Even when the Timberwolves we faced with adversity in trailing Milwaukee by 13 points in the second half last Saturday, they buckled down on defense, allowing just 44 points in the last two quarters and thanks to dialing up 13-three pointers, escaped with 106-104 victory.

Tonight the T-Wolves try and hunt down a sixth consecutive win against a Miami (19-17, 15-21 ATS) club in the midst of a seven game road trip. The Heat have been cool so far in January with 2-5 start and are 6-22 ATS after playing two consecutive road games the last two years. Oddsmakers have made the Heat 1.5-point favorites and they are 2-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.

In the Twin Cities and some national talk shows about the NBA, it has been said the Timberwolves have beaten five teams in a row with losing records and were not impressed, selectively ignoring four of them had better records than Minnesota. All matters of sports wagering on the NBA must be kept in their proper perspective with Minny 7-19 ATS after a win by six points or less over the last three seasons. Though they have been like a boonyclabber as a home underdog with 13-27 ATS record the last couple of years, Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in last six catching points. For good measure, the Timberwolves are 6-1 and 5-2 ATS hosting the Heat.

Sometimes even bad things have good results.

StatFox Power Line – Detroit by 6, Minnesota by 1